Roach Prediction : We will knock this guy out!

Well, it looks like old Nostradamus Freddie Roach is back to his predictions again, this time he’s saying that Manny Pacquiao will knock World Boxing Organization welterweight champion Miguel Cotto out on November 14th. In an article by Dennis Principe at Sports. Inquirer, Roach had this to say: “I picked him [Pacquiao] to win by decision, but until I started working him to this camp, the way he’s punching, his speed, we will knock this guy [Cotto] out.”

I really love the way Roach includes his name with the “we” part, as if he’ll be out there tagging Cotto as well. That’s funny. It won’t be any ‘we’ on November 14th. Pacquiao is going to be out there all by his lonesome facing Cotto and he’s going to have major problems. But I knew Roach was going to come back with a knockout prediction sooner or later. I was in disbelief when Roach started talking nice recently when he said that Cotto is a dangerous fighter and that the fight would go to a decision.
It almost seemed like Roach was trying to talk up the fight because almost no boxing fans were giving Cotto much of any chance against Pacquiao. Nothing has changed much since then, and here Roach is changing his tune by predicting a knockout win for Pacquiao. I’m wondering what Roach will say next. Maybe predict a 1st or 2nd round knockout, I guess.

He’s going to have to come up with something shocking to top his latest knockout prediction. All I can think of is he’ll say something like, “Manny is not only going to win, he’s going to flatten Cotto in the 1st round. How do you like them apples?” The media will eat it up like candy, of course. But there won’t be a knockout from Pacquiao’s side. There will be a knockout, but it will be Pacquiao who ends up getting taken out and Roach is going to end up with pie his face for his wrong prediction. I’m really looking forward to this so I can gloat and say I told you so.

I hear Pacquiao had some problems against his sparring partner Shawn Porter (10-0, 8 KO’s) in Pacquiao’s first day of sparring. I can’t say I’m surprised. Porter, a light middleweight, is fast and powerful and would probably wipe the deck with Pacquiao if the sparring went beyond three rounds. Porter’s the real deal. I don’t know that he’ll end up a champion in the light middleweight division because he’s only 5’7”, on the short side for a light middleweight, but he’s tough fighter.

I could see him beating Pacquiao up. I wonder how long he’ll last in the camp? If Roach lets him spar too much with Pacquiao, there probably won’t be enough left for Cotto to fight by November 14th. Look for Roach to start substituting the smaller, slower and weaker sparring partners, like Urbano Antillon, real quick rather than letting Porter beat up Pacquiao every day during training camp.

Roach: “Basically, we’re going to have a fast start and we’re not going to give [Cotto] any momentum.” It looks as if Roach is struck on the record of Pacquiao’s last fight against Ricky Hatton, and thinks Pacquiao can have the same kind of success if Manny bum rushes Cotto from the start of the fight. Sorry, that kind of approach won’t work against a talented fighter like Cotto.

It might work against a slower fighter such as Hatton, but not Cotto. If Pacquiao tries that approach, he’ll walk into a big right hand and get planted on the canvas on his backside. I really hope Pacquiao does try that aggressive style on Cotto, because Pacquiao will quickly find out that he doesn’t have the size or the power to be successful using that against a quality fighter like Cotto. That approach works against shot fighters and less talented ones, but it won’t work against Cotto.

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